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 sticky  Author  Topic: Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence  (Read 17675 times)
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xx Re: Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence
« Reply #90 on: Aug 3rd, 2010, 12:59pm »

http://news.discovery.com/space/a-mathematical-twist-on-the-fermi-paradox.html

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A Mathematical Twist on the Fermi Paradox


Analysis by Jennifer Ouellette
Mon Aug 2, 2010 06:00 PM ET

Interesting questions arise when physicists start chatting. Back in 1950, at Los Alamos National Laboratory, physicists Enrico Fermi, Emil Konopinski, Edward Teller, and Herbert York were walking to lunch when the conversation turned to a recent spate of reports of UFO sightings.

They quickly honed in on the challenge of faster-than-light travel, with Teller opining that there was a one in a million chance that science might achieve this on the scale of small material objects within the next ten years (i.e., by 1960). Fermi begged to differ; he placed the odds at closer to one in ten, making him the optimist of the merry band physicists.

The lunchtime conversation moved on, but Fermi continued to puzzle over the conundrum in his head, finally exclaiming, "Where is everybody?" If his rough calculations were correct, then the Earth should have received alien visitors many times over.

Thus was born the Fermi Paradox, defined as "the apparent contradiction between high estimates of the probability of the existence of extraterrestrial civilizations and the lack of evidence for, or contact with, such civilizations."

It's been an ongoing puzzle for scientists, and a source of inspiration for science fiction authors, ever since.

There's still no truly convincing explanation, but that doesn't keep physicists from trying to resolve the paradox. The latest effort is a new paper that appeared on the arXiv last week by Igor Bezsudonov and Andrey Snarskii at the National Technical University of Ukraine.

The scientists suggest that there is a limit to how big a given civilization may become, based on their models, which show civilizations growing at a given rate, reaching a threshold, then collapsing and dying. And this limited life space, in turn, reduces the likelihood of different civilizations from other solar systems or galaxies coming into contact with one another. (It's conceptually similar to the population dynamics model first proposed in the 19th century by Robert Malthus, among others.)

But there's a twist. If the two civilizations are close enough (in both time and space), the likelihood of coming into contact increases dramatically. Should this happen, say the scientists, the resulting mix of cultures and ideas will enable both civilizations to flourish for much longer than either would without that contact.

They used a cellular automaton model to demonstrate this process, using three basic parameters: the probability of civilization forming, its likely life span, and the extended life span it would enjoy should it come into contact with another civilization.

And if the values for those parameters are just right -- "finely tuned" in physics speak -- then a kind of phase change occurs. But instead of going from a solid to a liquid (or a gas), the universe goes from one in which civilizations scattered across the cosmos are unlikely to meet, to one in which they can. Who knows, perhaps even a federation of various civilizations could evolve -- assuming there isn't an interstellar war, with one civilization wiping out another and taking over their planet (the stuff of good science fiction for decades).

This might explain Fermi's Paradox: we don't have alien visitors (or communications) because our universe hasn't undergone that critical phase change -- i.e., we don't live in that finely tuned universe where the parameters are just right to give rise to mixing civilizations. Or we haven't been around long enough yet for the mixing to occur.

The paper ends with the only conclusion it can draw: we'll just have to wait and see.

The arXiv blog at Technology Review points out another intriguing aspect of this new paper:

"Bezsudnov and Snarskii even derive an Inequality that a universe must satisfy to become civilized. This, they say, is analogous to the famous Drake Equation which attempts to quantify the number of other contactable civilizations in the universe right now."

Ten years after Fermi proposed his paradox, physicist Frank Drake attempted to come with an equation to evaluate the probabilities of alien life arising elsewhere in our universe. It incorporated such terms as the rate at which stars form in a galaxy; how many stars have planets, and of those planets, how many would be habitable; of those that are habitable, how many would develop the kind of life that would evolve into an intelligent civilization capable of interstellar communication; and finally, how long such civilizations would last.

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A funny take on the Drake Equation (credit: xkcd/Randall Munro)

Those values are pretty much unknown, so while we have the equation, we don't have the means of solving it. Yet. We're not even sure exactly how life came about here on Earth, as royal astronomer Martin Rees recently pointed out while arguing against investing in manned spaceflight missions, as opposed to using robotic probes.

But the assumption made by the Drake Equation is that civilizations rise and fall within their own solar systems, with no interstellar colonization. Factor in that, and you've got a scenario more akin to population dynamics -- or one where Bezsudonov and Snarskii's approach might apply.

Drake himself never claimed his equation was less of a solution to Fermi's paradox, and more a means of "organizing our ignorance" on the subject. And he recently revisited the topic in anticipation of SETI-Con -- a weekend event being held later this month to celebrate the 50th anniversary of the Drake Equation:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zmfC51FstIg&feature=player_embedded
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« Reply #91 on: Mar 4th, 2011, 9:21pm »

You can buy the bestselling books on SETI using this link:
{http://ufologybooks.com/index.php?c=16&x=SETI}
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xx Re: Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence
« Reply #92 on: Oct 8th, 2011, 3:51pm »

I haven`t run through the posts here but aside the romance in the search for ET, Hawking has a case to think about.
I mean it sounds very romantic to seek life throughout the universe and yes I go along with it however it could have very negative aspects regarding us homo sapiens.
Slavery comes to mind as Hawking pointed out, what use we could serve I have no idea but it`s still a very frightening thought. PowerKnight wink
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xx Re: Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence
« Reply #93 on: Oct 9th, 2011, 1:58pm »

I recommend the Eerie Silence by Paul Davies....he's the chairperson of SETI. A good look at what they think about this and mainstream science's outlook on ET and contact.
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xx Re: Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence
« Reply #94 on: Oct 10th, 2011, 11:39pm »

You could probably call it more than eerie silence, Life appears to be universal. It has been found in the harshest environments on the planer. And while scientists rush to try and discredit the findings, they can't discount the fact that complex life form animals live in the Chernobyl area which are too radioactive to eat. Now we're aware that simple life forms can hitch a ride on rock, hibernate, and survive trip through interplanetary space. With life being this adaptable, we should have made contact by now.

There can only be one explanation. For whatever reason, extraterrestrials do not want humans to confirm their existence. One can only guess as to the motives.

Has anybody else ever considered the possibility that, provided they exist naturally, extraterrestrials coming here are really sentient androids?
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xx Re: Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence
« Reply #95 on: Oct 11th, 2011, 4:57pm »

on Oct 10th, 2011, 11:39pm, icepick wrote:
You could probably call it more than eerie silence, Life appears to be universal. It has been found in the harshest environments on the planer. And while scientists rush to try and discredit the findings, they can't discount the fact that complex life form animals live in the Chernobyl area which are too radioactive to eat. Now we're aware that simple life forms can hitch a ride on rock, hibernate, and survive trip through interplanetary space. With life being this adaptable, we should have made contact by now.

There can only be one explanation. For whatever reason, extraterrestrials do not want humans to confirm their existence. One can only guess as to the motives.

Has anybody else ever considered the possibility that, provided they exist naturally, extraterrestrials coming here are really sentient androids?


Davies touches on everything you mentioned and more in the book. He spends a good amount of time on the machine/android aspect and discusses Von Neuman machine intelligence as well as other ideas.
He takes up many pages getting into evolution and life in the universe in general and the possibility of sentient life and why they may or may not have ever been here.
Well worth the read imo but then I fall on the skeptical side about ufos as ET being here.
He presents an interesting idea that any alien life that has reached the ability to travel interstellar space would likely be so advanced that they would simpy not be interested in us especially if they came by earth a milion years ago or even many millenia in the past. They might have simply looked around and then left.
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xx Re: Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence
« Reply #96 on: Oct 12th, 2011, 01:41am »

Which is exactly what I think would happen the majority of the time. Unable to find life intelligent enough to establish relations with, they would simply collect the appropriate scientific samples, then move on. Sounds interesting.

In my mind, any extraterrestrials who would stick around under those circumstances, would stand a good chance of being malevolent in nature.
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xx Re: Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence
« Reply #97 on: Oct 13th, 2011, 2:49pm »

on Oct 12th, 2011, 01:41am, icepick wrote:
Which is exactly what I think would happen the majority of the time. Unable to find life intelligent enough to establish relations with, they would simply collect the appropriate scientific samples, then move on. Sounds interesting.

In my mind, any extraterrestrials who would stick around under those circumstances, would stand a good chance of being malevolent in nature.


The longer this goes on with no clear resolution nor open contact the more I am convinced this is not your routine space aliens (ET), but 'something else'.
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xx Re: Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence
« Reply #98 on: Oct 13th, 2011, 4:42pm »

It would be hard to determine what something else might be, but that's about right. If Roddenberry had one thing figured right in Trek, it was the Prime Directive. It's highly doubtful that ET, if they're coming here, would initiate contact with a species as primitive as ours. Not if they're a conscientious species anyway. They might establish a contact or two, seeing as we're at such a crossroads, but nothing more. But you know that they would definitely not give us any technologies they have. It would equate to giving Gengis Kahn nukes.

However, you're right about something 'going on'. You can sense it, feel it, actually you can almost touch it. But who knows what it might be. It just doesn't have that fuzzy feel like some kind, benevolent friend full of only the best intentions. This I can already address. I have a hunch you can do the same. Be it from without or from within, we should brace ourselves for anything in my opinion. And I'm strictly speaking for the average people here. It wouldn't matter whether they meant us good or bad, our governments have already made it clear that they would share no radical information with the populace. I have a hunch that the reaction to something Orson Welles pulled back in the 1930s might have a lot to do with that. And you couldn't really blame them either.
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xx Re: Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence
« Reply #99 on: Oct 13th, 2011, 7:50pm »

on Oct 13th, 2011, 4:42pm, icepick wrote:
It would be hard to determine what something else might be, but that's about right. If Roddenberry had one thing figured right in Trek, it was the Prime Directive. It's highly doubtful that ET, if they're coming here, would initiate contact with a species as primitive as ours. Not if they're a conscientious species anyway. They might establish a contact or two, seeing as we're at such a crossroads, but nothing more. But you know that they would definitely not give us any technologies they have. It would equate to giving Gengis Kahn nukes.

However, you're right about something 'going on'. You can sense it, feel it, actually you can almost touch it. But who knows what it might be. It just doesn't have that fuzzy feel like some kind, benevolent friend full of only the best intentions. This I can already address. I have a hunch you can do the same. Be it from without or from within, we should brace ourselves for anything in my opinion. And I'm strictly speaking for the average people here. It wouldn't matter whether they meant us good or bad, our governments have already made it clear that they would share no radical information with the populace. I have a hunch that the reaction to something Orson Welles pulled back in the 1930s might have a lot to do with that. And you couldn't really blame them either.


I know many have problems with Dr Vallee's ideas (he calls himself a heretic among heretics), but I think he may be onto something when he says this seems more like a Control System and that we are being manipulated by something other than routine space aliens.
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xx Re: Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence
« Reply #100 on: Oct 14th, 2011, 02:50am »

I guess you're going to insist I spit this out there. Well, it's probably obvious I have an opinion I'm quiet about. It's just that I don't like stating it online. They come right out of the ether if you catch my drift. But what the hey ....

I'm not sure about a control group, but there is something I've noticed for a long time. It's rather obvious if one has a tendency to notice reaction/behavior, that sort of thing. Our respective governments, they aren't clueless. They obviously know more than the average citizen, they have to. All of those reports are for something. But their behavior pretty much states quite clear that they don't know nearly enough to know what's going on either. It's written all over every one of them that makes an official statement.

But there are more clues. Despite that fact that the big kids on the block haven't been getting pushy with one another for years, just look at the types of weapons we're all working furiously to develop. Jane's Defense Weekly tracked the triangles to us. The Russians have been spotted with some unusual looking aircraft of their own. Which the Chinese are probably funding. There's the ABL, and the railgun. Have you checked out the latest subs that were developed? Almost a starship in tech, just needs to be able to fly.

It's obvious that all of us would like to disarm, this is expensive. But it almost seems to me like the powers that be are running scared of something. I can speak for no other nations about this part, but I know for a fact we've built some extremely remote bases up here on the Olympic Peninsula. Some you can only get to by helicopter. For example, there's one way up above Lord's Lake, and another far up the Hoh River. There's much primal bush before you can get to that last one.

Now that I've gone and spilled it out there, what do you think about all this? Have any opinions? I do, but I've said too much already.
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xx Re: Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence
« Reply #101 on: Oct 15th, 2011, 12:01pm »

on Oct 14th, 2011, 02:50am, icepick wrote:
I guess you're going to insist I spit this out there. Well, it's probably obvious I have an opinion I'm quiet about. It's just that I don't like stating it online. They come right out of the ether if you catch my drift. But what the hey ....

I'm not sure about a control group, but there is something I've noticed for a long time. It's rather obvious if one has a tendency to notice reaction/behavior, that sort of thing. Our respective governments, they aren't clueless. They obviously know more than the average citizen, they have to. All of those reports are for something. But their behavior pretty much states quite clear that they don't know nearly enough to know what's going on either. It's written all over every one of them that makes an official statement.

But there are more clues. Despite that fact that the big kids on the block haven't been getting pushy with one another for years, just look at the types of weapons we're all working furiously to develop. Jane's Defense Weekly tracked the triangles to us. The Russians have been spotted with some unusual looking aircraft of their own. Which the Chinese are probably funding. There's the ABL, and the railgun. Have you checked out the latest subs that were developed? Almost a starship in tech, just needs to be able to fly.

It's obvious that all of us would like to disarm, this is expensive. But it almost seems to me like the powers that be are running scared of something. I can speak for no other nations about this part, but I know for a fact we've built some extremely remote bases up here on the Olympic Peninsula. Some you can only get to by helicopter. For example, there's one way up above Lord's Lake, and another far up the Hoh River. There's much primal bush before you can get to that last one.

Now that I've gone and spilled it out there, what do you think about all this? Have any opinions? I do, but I've said too much already.


I'm not exactly sure what you are alluding to but it seems you are saying that the world govts know something about an alien agenda and are preparing for it..? Or is this more along the lines of the global cartels worried about the future in general and planning to let the little people die while they hunker down?
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xx Re: Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence
« Reply #102 on: Oct 15th, 2011, 12:17pm »

on Oct 9th, 2011, 1:58pm, drwu23 wrote:
I recommend the Eerie Silence by Paul Davies....he's the chairperson of SETI. A good look at what they think about this and mainstream science's outlook on ET and contact.

Good recommendation. cool Started reading the Kindle version a few days ago. Puts a lot of things in perspective and should be required reading for anyone interested in the search.
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xx Re: Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence
« Reply #103 on: Oct 15th, 2011, 1:36pm »

on Oct 15th, 2011, 12:17pm, Katterfelto wrote:
Good recommendation. cool Started reading the Kindle version a few days ago. Puts a lot of things in perspective and should be required reading for anyone interested in the search.


It's a very interesting book though it will no doubt bristle the hairs of the hard core ET believers.

grin
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xx Re: Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence
« Reply #104 on: Oct 16th, 2011, 6:06pm »

on Oct 15th, 2011, 12:01pm, drwu23 wrote:
I'm not exactly sure what you are alluding to but it seems you are saying that the world govts know something about an alien agenda and are preparing for it..? Or is this more along the lines of the global cartels worried about the future in general and planning to let the little people die while they hunker down?


Either or. Both of your ideas have merit. It's very hard to read between lines when great minds have worked so hard to maintain secrecy for whatever reason it may be. But even with the many drugs we have these days designed specifically to hide it, nervousness is something many of us are capable of spotting quite easily.

And I am very convinced that government officials know something in this area which makes most of them more than nervous. As I said earlier, they know more than we do, but I'm not one to claim I know specifically what it is. Unless I do, or the answer is obvious naturally. On this subject, there has been far too much intentional confusion throughout the years for either to be true. All I seek is input. I will consider any suggestion, but conclusions will not be reached nor stated, for obvious reasons. The possible answers seem nearly limitless to me these days.

It's just that it's strange for some people to appear so nervous these days if you know what I mean. But the human eye is a rather mysterious organ. While its primary purpose is sight, it mirrors the psyche to a major degree. Something drives certain leaders in this area, but what? They seem very unwilling to share. That's as far as my knowledge reaches.
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