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 thread  Author  Topic: Hey, California! Earthquake, or Volcano?  (Read 133 times)
Swamprat
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xx Hey, California! Earthquake, or Volcano?
« Thread started on: Jul 13th, 2017, 5:26pm »

Long Valley Supervolcano

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Long Valley, Calif., near the Nevada border
Volcano Number: 120314-A
Volcano Type: Caldera
Volcano Status: Pleistocene-Fumarolic
Last Known Eruption: Pleistocene
Summit Elevation: 3390 m 11,122 feet
Latitude: 37.70°N 37°42'0"N
Longitude: 118.87°W 118°52'0"W

The large 17 x 32 km Long Valley caldera east of the central Sierra Nevada Range formed as a result of the voluminous Bishop Tuff eruption about 760,000 years ago. Resurgent doming in the central part of the caldera occurred shortly afterwards, followed by rhyolitic eruptions from the caldera moat and the eruption of rhyodacite from outer ring fracture vents, ending about 50,000 years ago.

During early resurgent doming the caldera was filled with a large lake that left strandlines on the caldera walls and the resurgent dome island; the lake eventually drained through the Owens River Gorge.

The caldera remains thermally active, with many hot springs and fumaroles, and has had significant deformation, seismicity, and other unrest in recent years. The late-Pleistocene to Holocene Inyo Craters cut the NW topographic rim of the caldera, and along with Mammoth Mountain on the SW topographic rim, are west of the structural caldera and are chemically and tectonically distinct from the Long Valley magmatic system.


Long Valley Caldera at a Glance

Long Valley Caldera is a 15- by 30-km oval-shaped depression located 20 km south of Mono Lake along the east side of the Sierra Nevada in east-central California. This area of eastern California has produced numerous volcanic eruptions over the past 3 million years, including the massive caldera-forming eruption 760,000 years ago. The most recent eruption occurred just 250 years ago in Mono Lake at the north end of Mono-Inyo Craters volcanic chain.

Volcanic Unrest
In May of 1980, a strong earthquake swarm that included four magnitude 6 earthquakes struck the southern margin of Long Valley Caldera associated with a 25-cm, dome-shaped uplift of the caldera floor. These events marked the onset of the latest period of caldera unrest that continues to this day. This ongoing unrest includes recurring earthquake swarms and continued dome-shaped uplift of the central section of the caldera (the resurgent dome) accompanied by changes in thermal springs and gas emissions.

USGS Monitoring
In 1982, the U.S. Geological Survey under the Volcano Hazards Program began an intensive effort to monitor and study geologic unrest in Long Valley caldera. The goal of this effort is to provide residents and civil authorities in the area reliable information on the nature of the potential hazards posed by this unrest and timely warning of an impending volcanic eruption, should it develop.

Most, perhaps all, volcanic eruptions are preceded and accompanied by geophysical and geochemical changes in the volcanic system. Common precursory indicators of volcanic activity include increased seismicity, ground deformation, and variations in the nature and rate of gas emissions.

https://www.iceagenow.com/Long_Valley_Supervolcano.htm

Now, SEE NEXT POST!

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xx Re: Hey, California! Earthquake, or Volcano?
« Reply #1 on: Jul 13th, 2017, 5:30pm »

Entire Volcano in California is “Moving” – Quakes May Signal Trouble

When people think of California, they may think of Earthquakes. Most folks don’t even know there are volcanoes there, but there are. At least two: Lassen Peak and the much larger Long Valley Caldera near Mammoth Lakes.

In 1915, Lassen Peak erupted and wrecked a huge portion of the state. Over the last 100 days, the much larger Long Valley Caldera has begun acting-up. And what it’s doing has Geologists at the US Geological Survey “concerned.” The Caldera – the mouth of the Volcano – is . . . . moving.

According to scientific instruments monitored by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) the area in vicinity of the Long Valley caldera is deforming and moving rapidly compared to previous records. How sure are they? “95% (confidence interval), the (data) ensemble is significant”

The data is showing on a recent timespan that the amount of movement is causing STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT STRAIN in the rock in the area. This is not conspiracy-theorist conjecture or amateur geology antics, this is from the USGS itself. Here’s the actual data – if it looks to you like gobbledygook, you’re not alone; scroll down for an understandable explanation:

USGS INSTRUMENT MEASUREMENTS
The following exceed SNR 1.5 and at the 95% CI, the ensemble is significant
The time span is 31 out of 730 days To be significant at the 95% CI, counts need to exceed 20 Units in either mm/yr or nano-strain/yr

(Let me save you the trouble . . . . ALL the readings in this first data set EXCEED 20 Units; the ones in RED exceed it by a lot!)

sawc n rate 32.1 +/- 21.4 snr 1.5
ca99 n rate 55.1 +/- 30.2 snr 1.8
mwtp n rate 85.2 +/- 37.9 snr 2.2
p638 e rate 35.4 +/- 20.4 snr 1.7
shrc n rate 84.3 +/- 30.7 snr 2.7
shrc e rate 40.1 +/- 21.2 snr 1.9
p631 n rate 136.1 +/- 37.0 snr 3.7
p631 e rate 80.2 +/- 20.0 snr 4.0
tilc n rate 83.8 +/- 24.3 snr 3.4
tilc e rate 55.1 +/- 19.3 snr 2.9
ddmn e rate 46.1 +/- 24.4 snr 1.9
p646 e rate 29.1 +/- 16.8 snr 1.7
hotk e rate 27.6 +/- 18.1 snr 1.5
bald u rate –113.3 +/- 54.2 snr 2.1
p642 n rate 140.0 +/- 27.2 snr 5.1
p642 e rate 84.4 +/- 21.4 snr 3.9
mins e rate –151.8 +/- 33.5 snr 4.5
p643 n rate 44.1 +/- 15.7 snr 2.8
p635 n rate 32.0 +/- 19.5 snr 1.6
p635 e rate 70.8 +/- 35.0 snr 2.0
p644 n rate 55.2 +/- 16.0 snr 3.5
p644 e rate 81.4 +/- 23.4 snr 3.5
p636 e rate 72.1 +/- 34.9 snr 2.1
dech u rate –115.7 +/- 60.7 snr 1.9
p654 e rate 55.2 +/- 33.3 snr 1.7
p653 e rate 30.4 +/- 15.2 snr 2.0
p653 u rate -99.1 +/- 66.0 snr 1.5

The following exceed SNR 2.0 and at the 95% CI, the ensemble is significant The time span is 31 out of 730 days. To be significant at the 95% CI, counts need to exceed 9 Units in either mm/yr or nano-strain/yr

(Let me save you the trouble again, ALL the data in this second data set exceed 9 units; the ones in red, by a LOT)

mwtp n rate 85.2 +/- 37.9 snr 2.2
shrc n rate 84.3 +/- 30.7 snr 2.7
p631 n rate 136.1 +/- 37.0 snr 3.7
p631 e rate 80.2 +/- 20.0 snr 4.0
tilc n rate 83.8 +/- 24.3 snr 3.4
tilc e rate 55.1 +/- 19.3 snr 2.9
bald u rate –113.3 +/- 54.2 snr 2.1
p642 n rate 140.0 +/- 27.2 snr 5.1
p642 e rate 84.4 +/- 21.4 snr 3.9
mins e rate –151.8 +/- 33.5 snr 4.5
p643 n rate 44.1 +/- 15.7 snr 2.8
p635 e rate 70.8 +/- 35.0 snr 2.0
p644 n rate 55.2 +/- 16.0 snr 3.5
p644 e rate 81.4 +/- 23.4 snr 3.5
p636 e rate 72.1 +/- 34.9 snr 2.1
p653 e rate 30.4 +/- 15.2 snr 2.0

The following exceed SNR 3.0 and at the 95% CI, the ensemble is significant. The time span is 31 out of 730 days. To be significant at the 95% CI, counts need to exceed 1 Units in either mm/yr or nano-strain/yr.

(I’ll save you the trouble again, they ALL exceed 1 Unit; the ones in Red, by a LOT!)

p631 n rate 136.1 +/- 37.0 snr 3.7
p631 e rate 80.2 +/- 20.0 snr 4.0
tilc n rate 83.8 +/- 24.3 snr 3.4
p642 n rate 140.0 +/- 27.2 snr 5.1
p642 e rate 84.4 +/- 21.4 snr 3.9
mins e rate –151.8 +/- 33.5 snr 4.5
p644 n rate 55.2 +/- 16.0 snr 3.5
p644 e rate 81.4 +/- 23.4 snr 3.5

The following exceed SNR 4.0 and at the 95% CI, the ensemble is significant. The time span is 31 out of 730 days. To be significant at the 95% CI, counts need to exceed 0 Units in either mm/yr or nano-strain/yr.

(Yep, you guessed it, they ALL Exceed Zero .. by a LOT)

p631 e rate 80.2 +/- 20.0 snr 4.0
p642 n rate 140.0 +/- 27.2 snr 5.1
mins e rate –151.8 +/- 33.5 snr 4.5

Updated Sat Jul 8 14:37:18 UTC 2017

OK, so what does this mean? Well, judging by the deformation directions and rates: the magma plume is subsiding over the previous caldera and rising just south of it, where earthquakes are swarming now. The entire thing is tilting away from the mountains, with the northern edge of the old caldera sinking and the southern edge moving north, as if pushed by some force in the swarm region.

Doesn’t look good.

Here’s how the USGS puts it:

Increased volcanic unrest (including earthquake swarms, ground deformation, and CO gas emissions) in the Long Valley area since 1980 increases the chance of an eruption occurring in the near future, but scientists still lack adequate data to reliably calculate by how much. Volcanic unrest in some other large volcanic systems has persisted for decades or even centuries without leading to an eruption. But since volcanic unrest can escalate to an eruption quickly–in a few weeks, days, or less–USGS scientists are monitoring the activity closely.

For those of you who might not quite comprehend this, let me put it another way:

Out of nowhere, the mountain started moving several times faster than it’s ever moved before, in a direction it isn’t supposed to be moving, while shaking like a leaf and belching poison gas.

There, that should be clear enough for just about anyone!

The USGS has also issued a status statement about the volcano which reads as follows:

Long Valley Caldera

Quick Facts
Location: California, Mono County
Latitude: 37.7° N
Longitude: 118.87° W
Elevation: 2,600 (m) 8,530 (f)
Volcano type: caldera
Composition: basalt to rhyolite
Most recent eruption: 16,000-17,000 years ago
Nearby towns: Mammoth Lakes
Threat Potential: Very High *

Oh. Joy! Threat potential very high. Just what we need.

EARTHQUAKES
OK, so there’s ground deformation, Carbon Monoxide Gas and some earthquakes. We all know earthquakes are a pretty reliable indicator of a pending eruption. How many earthquakes have there been and how big were they? Glad you asked!

284 in the last 5 days!

What causes “earthquakes” inside a volcano higher than ground levelhuh?? LAVA! Moving upward.

http://www.newsprepper.com/warning-california-volcano-ready-blow-lond-valley-volcano-scientists-warning/

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xx Re: Hey, California! Earthquake, or Volcano?
« Reply #2 on: Jul 14th, 2017, 6:14pm »

Buy property in Elko, Nevada. It will soon be beachfront!
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xx Re: Hey, California! Earthquake, or Volcano?
« Reply #3 on: Jul 15th, 2017, 3:07pm »


..California sinks into the sea; that'll be the day I go back to Annandale...

Steely Dan fans will know that one.

Could be quite prophetic.

What with large parts of Florida disappearing down sinkholes things don't look too good over there right now.

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